Working Theory: The RAV4 Got Stuck
Updated Working Theory: The RAV4 Got Stuck with a Flat, was Pulled Out and the Flat Tire was Swapped After Leaving ASY
provided a better theory for the damage to the RAV4 in his OP, titled Damage to RAV4 not from run off road
. I've developed a working theory starting with the idea that the RAV4 was eventually dragged out of a ditch, that I have titled "The RAV4 Got Stuck with a Flat, Pulled Out and Flat Tire Swapped After Leaving ASY". First, I found this quaint little drawing
showing a car getting stuck on the right side of the road, and the car being freed using a hook rope, a tree and a come-along. This drawing sets up my basic premise. TH has left ASY and is headed somewhere else, when she slides off the road into a ditch on the right hand side and is stuck. First, you might ask, why doesn't she just call AAA or 911, but I have an explanation for that. Perhaps her phone has simply gone dead by this point in the trip or perhaps a good samaritan with a winch came by quickly (Winch
). The good samaritan with the winch may even be driving a small white jeep, as they often have front end winches (Link to small white jeep with a winch
). Now I have some ideas about why the winch rope would have been connected through the turn signal light opening, rather than the frame hooks on the bottom of the bumper.
(1) The cable and hook on the winch may have been too large for the rather small frame hooks on the RAV4 bumper (RAV4 bumper photo). (2) The turn signal may have already been cracked from an earlier accident, but not removed. This would explain why RH said the turn signal was damaged, but the photos show that the area behind the turn signal was clean, indicating it had only recently be removed. Looking for a place to attach the winch cable, the turn signal was removed and placed in the cargo hold. (3) I believe that the bumper mount location on the frame may have been accessible through the turn signal opening and the winch cable may have been looped around the frame, with the end of the cable threaded through the turn signal opening, around the frame where the bumper mounts and then back out around the bottom of the bumper. This might explain the scratches on the bumper, which would have been from the winch cable, and the hole in the bumper, that u/kent334 so expertly identified as being flared out (RAV4 bumper assembly diagram). (4) It now appears that there is evidence that the RAV4 may have had a flat front left tire, and that the tire was changed after freeing the RAV4 from the mud. The tire is not muddy but the side of the RAV4 is muddy (link). The balance weight on left front tire in the original photo of the RAV4 may be missing in the crime lab photo (link), and the lug wrench was not found in its normal storage location (link). u/frankie07 looked into the PoG photos of this tire and reported that the clean front left tire may have been due to CSI processing and may be misleading. (5) u/LizardFoot83 noticed that the rear compartments in the RAV4 were open (link). I found a video showing where the factory jack and tools would have been located in the RAV4 (link) and they were missing! This is additional strong circumstantial evidence that the flat tire tools had been used. (6) Could TH have had a flat and got stuck in a ditch, and been pulled out of the ditch and had her tire changed or repaired with "AirUp" inflator and sealer, all before she visited ASY. It is highly unlikely. TH's phone records (Exhibit 361) do not contain any time for delays that would account for this type of mishap. If indeed, TH's RAV4 got caught with a flat and stuck in a rut, it most certainly had to happen after leaving ASY. This could be further corroborated by cell tower information, but many of us at TTM have reviewed these phone timetables and suspect that there isn't even enough time to have performed the three scheduled visits. (7) Who could stop by and help a car with a flat without causing suspicion? During the trial, Defense Attorney DS asked MTSO Lt. JL just this very question (link). Just some food for thought.
So basically the working theory would explain the damage to the RAV4 and suggest that TH had gotten stuck in a ditch with a flat and was helped by someone with a winch, perhaps a white jeep. One thing I was thinking of doing was a spiral search away from ASY for locations that might seem likely to have caused an accident of this type. Hard left turns in the road perhaps. Another search option would be to try to predict her next destination and likely path to that destination. The Whitelaw Tower ping is a clue. I seem to remember a long-shot suspect suggesting that something like this may have happened. Does anyone else remember this? Perhaps someone who confessed to it in jail? Additional Findings:
(1) Could TH have been accidentally forced off the road at an entry ramp?
I researched accident patterns on I43 and found that one place where cars are often forced off the road is at entry ramps. This makes the 147 and I43 exchange a possible site northbound to Green Bay or southbound to 10/310 to go home. This location may not be consistent with the Whitelaw Tower ping however. It may be too far north. (2) Is the breakdown location in Sector 1 of Whitelaw Tower?
Sector 1 on the Whitelaw tower may be the best location indicator that we have for the accident site. Based on the map from the photo of the Newsweek article, we think this is near the 10/310 and I43 exchange, and that sector 1 would be north of that exchange. (3) Was the left front tire later changed?
This may be a key piece of corroboration. Look at this zoom-in on the photo of the RAV4 taken at the Wisconsin State Crime Lab (Link
). There is mud thrown all over the side of the RAV4 behind the left front tire, but the tire itself is fairly clean. This is not true of the rear tire. Does this corroborate the stuck in a ditch theory? From u/LizardFoot83
, did LE ever examine the spare tire? Also, what is that brown crumpled object shoved in the wheel well? u/frankie07
looked at the PoG picture at the pond at ASY and it appears that some of the mud was on the tire at that time, so this finding may just be due to CSI crime scene contamination (link
). (4) Did the truck driver who LE interviewed have anything to do with it?
Multiple members identified the "running out of gas story" in the CaSO report, including u/bennybaku
. This possibly related story is told in the CASO, report pages 1043 to 1049 (link
). (5) u/hos_gotta_eat_too
had a prior post on the main MaM site called "Just some thoughts tonight"
that speculates that there may have been a flat tire. I searched for prior posts, and this was the only one I found on this topic.
If the jack is in place, then she likely did not have a flat. If the jack was removed, and not there..then it would point to her having a flat tire, after a small collision, and a samaritan helping her, because realistically...would a girl like Teresa know how to fix a flat? Also, would there be a way to tell if the driver side front tire has more tread than the other 3 and spare..this would indicate that tire was indeed changed.
(6) Is the balance weight on the left front tire missing?
I compared the old photo of TH's RAV4 against the Wisconsin State Crime Lab photo and it appears that a balance weight may be missing, suggesting the tire may be the spare (Link
). (7) Was the lug wrench taken out of its normal storage location?
KZ claims it was, while discussing item A16 on page 20 of the post-conviction testing motion (Link
). Thanks to u/bennybaku
for remembering this one. (8) Was there time for the flat before visiting ASY?
TH's phone records for 10/31/2005 make it clear that there was little or no time for delays from the time she left her home, went to SS's, GZ's and then to the ASY (Exhibit 361
). If TH had a flat and was pulled out of a ditch, then it happened after the visit to ASY. There is no other space in the timetable. (9) Was the factory jack and toolkit missing from the RAV4?
I found some photos of where the jack stand and the tools would have been located in the 1999 RAV4 (link
reports that the toolkit panel was missing and no jack was found in the car (link
). This is more corroborating evidence that a tire was changed. (10) Was the spare tired ever processed by the WI State Crime Lab?
We know that the lab dusted for prints on the spare tire cover, but did they ever actually look at the spare tire? u/ahhhreallynow
raised this question, and I don't know the answer to it. (11) Was TH taking pictures of cows on the highway after her car got stuck?
Inv. WB spoke to witness APK on the morning of 11/05/2005, and APK said she saw someone fitting TH's description taking pictures of cows on the highway, on perhaps
Tuesday, which would be 11/01/2005. Perhaps it was Monday afternoon? (Link
). The RAV4 was found on ASY later that morning and the lead was dropped. The location was not well identified in the police report. Was the highway 147 or was it I43 or where? APK lives in Valders off of US-151. This may give us a clue. (12) Is there a dairy farm by I43 heading down to Whitelaw that can be seen from the highway?
I checked the properties form 147 south bound to US 10 and found one fairly large dairy farm right by the highway. Here is a google map view: https://email@example.com,-87.7317273,514m/data=!3m1!1e3
(13) Who could respond to a car with a flat tire and not seem suspicious?
I ran across a line of questioning in the trial transcript (link
) where DS is cross-examining MTSO Sgt AC. It's just food for thought:
[DS] Q. You might respond to a flat tire on the side of the road? [AC] A. Yes, sir.
posted a related OP called "The RAV4 Evidence That Was Missed."
in which he/she argued some of the same evidence discussed here, and also raised suspicions that the RAV4 tire had been flat. (15) Had the Can of "AirUp" Tire Inflator and Sealer been used?
The CASO report identifies property item #8073 as a can of "AirUp" tire inflator and sealer. The report does not mention if it had been used. The product's web sites (http://www.airup.com/airup_family.htm
) suggest it is not defunct, and this appears to have been a product sold using infomercials or perhaps at truck stops, and was not a stock part of a RAV4. This could be additional corroborating evidence that TH got caught with a flat after leaving ASY (CASO Page 426
). Happy Sleuthing... Rev. AF: Proofed. Added some next steps. Added RAV4 bumper assembly diagram. Rewrote description of threading. Added link to CASO report. Additional findings (1) thru (15). Update working theory. Fixed PCST motion link page numbers. Added missing toolkits, open storage location and missing jack information. Added u/frankie07 finding about PoG picture showing more mud than crime lab's. Added TH possibly taking pictures of cows on the highway. Added possible location of blow out where cow's could be seen on southbound I-43 near whitelaw tower. Added AC testimony links.
submitted by magilla39
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submitted by GameCheats_2642