Breaking Down the 5 Football Teams That Are Threats To Win the Big 12 In 2020 and What Does Texas Need To Do To Win the Big 12
submitted by mikenguyenUT
How a 1-5 Illinois could win the Big Ten West
It's a very strange season, and there are 4 weeks left of Big Ten regular season competition. In the table linked above, I've shared a pathway for 1-5 Illinois to claim the Big Ten West title and represent the division in the conference championship game against 7-0 Ohio State. I've linked the Big Ten Tiebreaker Rules, and the relevant section is here:
A team must play at least six games to be considered for participation in the championship game. However, if the average number of conference games played by all teams falls below six, with the average rounded up/down at .50 (i.e. 6.50 or greater would round up to 7, 6.49 or less would round down to 6), then teams must play no less than two fewer conference games than the average number of conference games played by all teams (i.e. four games played if the conference average is six) to be considered.
Illinois' best hope of a division Championship rests in 3 things being true:
- Illinois successfully plays 6 games.
- No one else in the division plays 6 games.
- The average number of games played in the conference is 6 or greater.
If the average falls below 6, then anyone who has played at least 4 games is eligible for the division title, which makes the path a lot harder for a 1-win Illinois. There's some ambiguity in the language, I've interpreted "all teams" here to mean "all teams in the Big Ten", and not "all teams in the Big Ten West", otherwise the task becomes a lot harder.
The key to fulfilling these criteria is that games in the East keep happening for the most part, and games in the West do not above 5 games for any team besides Illinois. To make the scenario somewhat realistic, I've assumed no further cancellations this week other than the Michigan State @ Maryland game that's already been canceled. In the 21 remaining games in the 3 remaining weeks, a total of 10 cancelations are required. This brings the average number of games played in the conference to exactly 6, with Illinois as the only Big Ten West team with 6 games played. As a result, they'll meet 7-0 Ohio State for a rematch in the conference championship.
Who actually wins the games listed matters less than which games are played, so you can shuffle around the winners if you like to have other teams meet Illinois in the Championship. An amusing part of this scenario is that Illnois' lone win would come from Rutgers, and so division champions Illinois would be 0-4 in their own division.
submitted by bakonydraco