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Predicting Lions Games || 2020-21 Season || Week 02

Week 02 - Sunday, 20SEP2020, 1:00pm

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Lions fan, coming in peace! I'm writing an article series where I predict the outcomes of Lions games using several methods, some of them logical, and some kinda bonkers. It was well-received last year, so this year I thought I would share the fun with our opponents as well! I hope you enjoy.
Well. That was rough. I don’t think any of us want to linger on Week 1, though, so let’s move on.
This week’s matchup is one that I anticipate every year, though it doesn’t often come this early in the season. We’re in Lambeau, folks. At least it’s not Week 17 and our season is riding on it, eh?
I’m not sure how I feel about this game, but we should get into the picks to see if there’s reason for hope.
For details about the methodology for these prediction approaches or an explanation of any rivalries, please see here.

Rivalry A: 'Cause I Ain't No Quartaback Girl

Prediction Method 1: Higher QB Rating Record: (0-1) / 0.0%
If this were last week and we were using 2019 numbers, Stafford would beat Rodgers by 14 places in the league. Unfortunately, all we have to use is last week’s Super Rodgers and underwhelming Stafford. Rodgers’s 90.5, good for 2nd place behind Lamar Jackson, beats Stafford’s 48.6 in 26th place.
Oh God, Trubisky was in 20th place, above Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady. What is happening, 2020?? (Oh right, he was playing Detroit’s defense)
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Prediction Method 2: Higher Passer Rating Record: (0-1) / 0.0%
Just like with QBR, Rodgers is riding a good showing, and Stafford is suffering from the opposite. Rodgers is in 4th place with a Passer Rating of 127.5, and Stafford falls to 28th with a 77.2. Rough.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry B: As, Of Course, Is Tradition

Prediction Method 3: Better Turnover Differential Record: (1-0) / 100.0%
So far this season, Detroit has had no takeaways, and thrown one interception. Green Bay on the other hand, has had no giveaways and seized one interception. They’re like mirrors, except in this case only one of the faces is ugly.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Prediction Method 4: Average Points Per Game Record: (0-1) / 0.0%
Now that we have 2020 stats to go by, we don’t have to use 2019 regular season records.
Crap, now that we have 2020 stats to go by, we don’t get to use 2019 regular season records.
For those who weren’t keeping a league-wide perspective last week, note that Green Bay led the league in scoring with 43 points. And we’ve only had one week. 43 divided by 1 is 43. Detroit only put up 23 points against Chicago, so this one isn’t particularly close.
(For the record, we would have lost this pick with 2019 stats, but it would have been 2.3 points per game instead of 20.0)
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry C: Every Now and Then

Prediction Method 5: Best 2019 Record Record: (1-0) / 100.0%
Just like last week, we know that any division rival had a better record than Detroit last season. How much better was Green Bay than Detroit’s 3-12-1? They led the division at 13-3.
I know, I’d repressed it from my memory until now as well. Yikes.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Prediction Method 6: Best Team History Record Record: (1-0) / 100.0%
Another week, another long-running rivalry. Once again, that means that many of these wins and losses have been against each other. What’s the score?
Detroit Lions: (562-671-33) / 45.7%
Green Bay Packers: (769-591-42) / 56.3%
Remember last week when I talked about Chicago having the 4th best overall record in the league? Yeah, Green Bay is 2nd in the league. Rough division, man.
(Though that does give me an idea for next year...I should predict based on the all-time record of the two teams against one another. Somebody remind me.)
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry D: Upper Management vs The Union

Prediction Method 7: More Experienced Coaching Staff Record: (1-0) / 100.0%
Lions:
Matt Patricia: 2 years as a head coach Darrell Bevell: 14 years as an offensive coordinator Cory Undlin: 0 years as an defensive coordinator Brayden Coombs: 0 years as a special teams coordinator Total: 16 years
Oh no, this is gonna be a nightmare to write about every week. Get ready to read a lot about Bevell being the real brawn in this field.
Packers:
Matt LaFleur: 1 year as a head coach Nathaniel Hackett: 6 years as an offensive coordinator Mike Pettine: 7 years as an defensive coordinator Shawn Mennenga: 1 year as a special teams coordinator Total: 15 years
Shawn Mennenga actually has a fair bit of defensive coordinator, interestingly. In any case, we lost by one year last week (odd statement…), and we win by one year this week (still odd).
Pick: Detroit Lions
Prediction Method 8: More NFL Top 100 Players Record: (1-0) / 100.0%
Lions
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Packers
16) Aaron Rodgers, QB 33) Aaron Jones, RB 48) Za’Darius Smith, OLB 57) Davante Adams, WR 62) David Bakhtiari, OT 63) Preston Smith, OLB
Holy shit, really? Wow.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry E: It's Just A Game

Prediction Method 9: Madden 21 Simulation Record: (1-0) / 100.0%
I’m calling an audible here. I was running Madden 19 because it’s the latest version I own (and I will not be upgrading any time soon), but this week I discovered that Jeremy Reisman of Pride of Detroit is streaming a Madden 21 simulation of Detroit’s matchup every Saturday! Even better, his Week 1 simulation ended in a Bears victory, consistent with my own Madden pick from last week, so the transition is seamless.
In this week’s sim, Detroit loses to Aaron Rodgers’s mustache by throwing a 5-yard pass on the last play of the game, which is regrettably accurate. I mean, they were down 35-14 Packers, but it’s the principle of the thing. Come on, man.
I’ve always been pretty lazy about the writeup for my own Madden sims, but I think I’m going to be deliberately brief for these. The actual stream is more entertaining than I ever took the time to be, since he records the whole thing and gives commentary (which is multiplied by how he knows how to talk about football waaayyyyyy better than I do). Click that link up there. It’s worth your time to give it a watch!
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Prediction Method 10: Tecmo Super Bowl Simulation Record: (0-1) / 0.0%
Spoiler alert, this week’s Tecmo matchup ends very similarly to the Madden one. Green Bay starts with the ball, and they score without much trouble. Detroit’s first effort manages to get all the way downfield, but an interception in the red zone strikes that from having any impact on the scoreboard. The Packers have no such trouble capitalizing on the turnover, and they get in again. Detroit manages to get halfway back before throwing another interception. Two plays later, Green Bay throws an interception. Two plays after that, Detroit throws yet another pick! What is going on down there?? Green Bay did manage to get into field goal range before the half ended, but their kick attempt got audible-donged. They also made an error on clock management and left Detroit enough time to get off a couple of plays, but the Lions squander that with a fumble on their first attempt.
They get the ball back to start the second half, but get intercepted on their second play yet again. The Packers get into the endzone on the feet of Aaron Rodgers and a 15-yard scramble, and I start getting bored watching. Suddenly, though, Detroit comes out like a tornado, and finally touch the endzone after a 45-yard kickoff return and just three offensive plays. Unfortunately, Green Bay immediately looks to Aaron Jones and he gets his third touchdown of the game (note that those images of him have been three different URLs!). Detroit still has some time to make a miracle happen, but they’re forced into a 4th and 17 situation, upon which Stafford gives up a huge sack. With two minutes left, that would be enough to ice it, but Green Bay scores again just for the heck of it, and that closes out a really ugly game for the silver and blue.
Final score, 35-7 Packers.
If Tecmo has its way, expect a lot of nasty turnovers, a surprising run from Rodgers, and a game that makes the NFC North situation even more clear.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry F: Going To The Dogs

Prediction Method 11: Fen's Pick Record: (0-1) / 0.0%
For the second time in two weeks, Fen has opted to be a proper Michigander and support Detroit. She may be a fool, but she’s a dedicated one. A true Lions fan.
Pick: Detroit Lions
Prediction Method 12: Elena's Pick Record: (1-0) / 100.0%
Elena was so excited to pick this week that I only managed to get a picture after she made her pick and was on her way to the other. No, of course she wasn’t just excited about the treats. She loves helping me, that’s all.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry G: This Was A Terrible Idea

Prediction Method 13: My Wife's Pick Record: (0-1) / 0.0%
“As much as it pains me to say it, I’m pretty sure that Green Bay is going to win. Ugh, I feel gross even saying it.”
“Any particular reason?”
“We were trash against the Bears…?”
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Prediction Method 14: My Mother’s Pick Record: (0-1) / 0.0%
“I am going to pick, as much as I hate to, I’m going to pick the Packers. Because they seem to always win, and...I want to be right this week. So. If I have to do it that way, I will.”
“[Wife’s name] did the same thing.”
“Hahaha, yay! Great minds. Well, if memory serves me, that have a good team. I used to work with a couple of teachers who that was their team. They were always rooting for them and they were always good. So I thought, well...I would do that.”
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry H: Money, Meet Mouth

Prediction Method 15: OddsShark Forecast Record: (1-0) / 100.0%
Wow, no close game this week. At time of writing, OddsShark has the predicted score at 33.1-13.3 for the Packers. Aside from the odd quirks of a score made of only two digits and the fact that it’s a palindrome, there’s not much to say here. OddsShark is expecting a pretty one-sided affair.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Prediction Method 16: My Pick Record: (0-1) / 0.0%
If there’s anything we have going for us, it’s that we don’t have the usual Lambeau crowd to contend with this year. Still, I’ll be real with you guys. I’m feeling skeptical after last week. The optimism fled my brain very quickly. Even though it seems to keep friggin happening, it just hurts to get shellacked by Mitchell Trubisky. It raised a lot of questions about this team that I thought had been answered already, and it answered some other questions in ways I didn’t want. Sure, we had key injuries, but we’ve still got some of that going on this week. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that we’ve been hammered with injuries. In particular, Golladay being out removes not only one of Stafford’s favorite weapons, but also a presence that helps take pressure off of Marvin Jones Jr. and elevates his play. And you know what? That “It raised a lot of questions...” sentence can be applied, without alteration, to the Packers/Vikings game last week, in all the ways that are worst for us.
Green Bay achieved an extremely convincing victory, and...I think the Vikings are better than us right now to begin with. I know football often doesn’t follow the transitive property, but unless a lot of things about our team get a lot better in a hurry, I just don’t see us pulling this one out.
O me of little faith.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Unrivaled Methods

Prediction Method 17: A Literal Coin Flip Record: (1-0) / 100.0%
This time around, the coin stuck with Detroit. That also makes it 50/50 on each side, and, let’s be real, probably 50/50 on its prediction record as well.
Pick: Detroit Lions
Prediction Method 18: Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid Record: (0-1) / 0.0%
DID YOU KNOW THAT GREEN BAY BEAT THE LIONS IN PLAYOFF GAMES TWICE IN ONE CALENDAR YEAR? IN BOTH JANUARY AND DECEMBER OF 1994. YEAH, I KNOW. CRAZY, RIGHT?
WELL GUESS WHAT? NOW IT’S OUR TURN TO MAKE AN UNUSUAL STATEMENT, BY BEATING GREEN BAY THREE TIMES IN ONE SEASON. NOW, WEEK 17, AND WILD CARD WEEKEND. WAIT, THAT WOULD REQUIRE US TO NOT SECURE A WILD CARD BYE, WHICH WOULD BY EXTENSION REQUIRE US TO LOSE GAMES.
NO, YOU’RE CONTRADICTORY. SHUT UP. RODGERS IS PAST HIS PRIME OR SOMETHING. WHATEVER.
IS IT STILL TRENDY TO SAY “FTP”? LAMBEAU IS GONNA LOOK GOOD PAINTED HONOLULU BLUE.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Summary

Raw Prediction: Green Bay Packers (4 for Detroit Lions, 14 for Green Bay Packers) Raw Prediction record: (0-1) / 0.0%
Weighted Prediction: Green Bay Packers (2.0 for Detroit Lions, 7.0 for Green Bay Packers) Weighted Prediction record: (0-1) / 0.0%
Last week, the Raw Prediction and Weighted Prediction had to make the same call, due to a lack of assigned weights. With a week under our belts, though, this could have been an opportunity for the two to separate themselves.
...yeah, not happening, and I’m not surprised. With a full 77.8% of methods picking Green Bay this week, it only makes sense that both aggregate picks are going to the Pack, and frankly, I can’t blame them. By all accounts, this is going to be an unpleasant game for those of us on the side of Roary. Watch the game, but…
submitted by NFL_Prediction_Bot to GreenBayPackers

Banner Review: SoF Vaan & DH Penelo (Final Fantasy XII)

A pleasant sunday... wait, monday to you! Hope you've been doing well. I'm a bit swamped when it between hobbies and current on-going exams which are going to end early to mid august, just to keep you updated. I hope everybody can understand. At least it's rainy and cooling down a bit, it's been pretty hot lately.
This banner is one many have looked out for for a longer time and you'll see why. For one, this is the first banner that gives us 130% imperils! So if you're building your team, you might be able to benefit from that as they come with fire, ice, dark and wind 130% imperils. Now we're missing the other half!

Banner Review: CG Vaan SoF Vaan & DH Penelo Dancer Penelo by Memel0rd

 

CG Vaan Seeker of Freedom Vaan:

Trust Master Reward : A Brother's Sentiments (Materia) - Increase physical evasion (20%) Increase resistance to paralyze (100%) Increase equipment ATK (50%) when dual wielding
STMR : Durandal (Sword) - 163 ATK, 30% Provoke, 30% Physical Evasion (doesn't stack btw)
 

Overview:

Vaan is the highly anticipated unit for quite a few reasons. Not his character though, not too many people like him as a protagonist.
His base stats are really well rounded with high HP, DEF and SPR but focuses a lot of his ATK. Which can be used properly unlike a good bunch of other breakers. And while he does have 100% TDH, his own TMR focuses on TDW, it's easier to cap and can use the 6x chain cap. Other than that, he has only 120% ATK, which is significantly lower than meta damage dealers. In terms of survivability, he can be built in different fashions. His innate 70% HP and total 60% physical evasion can turn him into an evader extremely easily, and if you want some SPR and don't care about dealing damage, equipping a shield will grant another 40% SPR and 10% HP. In the meta section I'll go over the different build choices that SoF Vaan can utilise. He's resistant against paralyze through his TMR ability and through his TMR, double the trouble, petrification, poison and disease, which overall are decent resistances but leave out important ones such as Sleep or Confusion. He does have a 100% beast / human killer though, which are very common enemy types and his damage is definitely not bad either.
SoF Vaan can W-/T-Cast all of his abilities except for Luminescence, which is a shame as it is his only form of chaining via Aureole Ray. With Dualwield you can still cast it twice, which can be paired with MM Xon, Regis, Nichol of the Epsilon Star or if you're using her, SS Charlotte. It's a solid option for DV, though you'll have to seperate it from all other actions due to the limitations on it.
To match his massive 60% innate evasion well, SoF Vaan can use a 100% provoke that lasts 2 turns easily due to the T-Cast, but we'll talk about better options later down the road.
From here on, SoF Vaan has a set of incredible breaks and decent finishers. We'll start off with his damage options and then take a closer look at his breaking capabilities.
Vaan is really simple when it comes down to acting as a side finisher. He has three different finishers with 2000% modifiers, buffed up to 3000% later on, that either apply an 80% ST fullbreak or 120% fire wind imperil while unlocking stronger versions of themselves. The fullbreak itself is extremely useful to have on-demand and if his LB isn't available his best source of breaks.
After using the Fire or Wind Achilles, True versions will be unlocked that will keep unlocking themselves each time you use them. If you wait too long, you'll have to use the regular versions once. The difference isn't huge but sets a milestone in the FFBE meta: 130% imperils. SoF Vaan is the first unit to provide us with 130% imperils. The finishers are also slightly stronger with 2200% / 3200% modifiers.
How do you gain the modifier boost? Through Earthen Eruption, which is his first CD, available at Turn 1 with a 4 turn cooldown and neat self-buffs. For one, the 1000% modifier boost on all prior abilities as well as Red Spiral, his main finisher, while having a 4000% modifier itself and granting us a 250% ATK buff for 5 turns. Thus easily maintainable. Red Spiral itself is a plain 3500% / 4500% finisher that's on-demand and can be fit in whenever you want.
Outside of his ST 80% fullbreak, Vaan also has an on-demand AoE 75% fullbreak, which, yet again, is a great one to have on-demand, though due to the T-Cast you might just want the ST version a few times.
If that doesn't suffice, he is a CG Protagonist and thus gets his LB filled up fully at the start of the battle and it's amazing. It costs 34 crysts so can be a bit finicky to maintain without external support, but it surely does the job. An AoE 2 turn 85% fullbreak and an AoE 130% fire imperil while dealing decent-ish damage, which is nice for mob / event clearing. If you want a unit for events, this is likely the best deal. Instant access, huge breaks and imperil before dealing damage and then a nice mod. The breaks compete with last banner's Healing Avatar Lid with less turn duration but the novelty of having it available at Turn 1. Which makes this the highest Turn 1 break available without external support.
Now, SoF Vaan still has two aces up his sleeve in form of two different CD abilities.
His first one, Assault Strike+, shares the same niche as Healing Avatar Lid's though instead of having a 4 turn cooldown, has 6 turns. It's still a removal of all enemy buffs, leaving on all of your debuffs saving you additional work and it's just good.
The second one is truely remarkable. We all love to see some AoE mirages. At least I hope we do, because I do. Rikku (FFX-2) is great because of the AoE mirage that she can use each turn with her multi-cast. SoF Vaan simply uses Jade Parry once and then immediately casts an AoE mirage. The twist? Next turn, it'll auto-cast another AoE mirage. 2 turns after again. 3 turns after yet another time. So you use Jady Parry once and receive AoE mirages 3 times each turn without having to do anything. It's on a 4 turn cooldown as well so you can maintain it all the way unless he dies.
 

How does he fare in the meta?

SoF Vaan is an amazing unit hands down and is the one you most likely want from this banner.
He has two different main build choices.
If you have been around for some time and obtained a lot of the event gear in the past, such as K Producer's Jacket, Wrapped Gift and most importantly Moogle Charm, as well as grinded the FF12 event materia that grants 10% auto-provoke and physical evasion, you can gear him towards auto-provoke and evasion. All that on a unit with amazing breaks and other really good utility as well as a decent amount of finisher damage or AR chains.
If you don't need that because your e.g. Paladin Cecil absorbs everything by default, you might want to focus all on ATK because while his damage per se isn't as huge as other finishers, he's an excellent breaker and doesn't rely on more damage. It's there for you, for free, as long as you have natural chains going on you can just slap them in. His average damage that way is similar to WH Raegen, so it's excellent side damage for sure. "For free".
As the breaker role has it, I wouldn't say he's straight up the best breaker or outclasses Healing Avatar Lid, because he doesn't. He has a way inferior chaining game and can't grant his allies AMoE chains either, but if you're already settled on chainers in your team then I'd definitely recommend SoF Vaan over her any day of the week. That being said, he CAN still chain. Not super well, but you could break on Turn 1 with his LB and then AR chain with e.g. MM Xon.
For Dark Visions you could build him a bit more tankier if there are ambushes, outside of that can act as an amazing breaker due to his LB always being available at the start, even if you don't use it immediately on Turn 1. You don't have to build anything up and if you finish the fight on Turn 1 or Turn 2 is very likely the best option to use.
Definitely another well designed unit with cool niches similar to what people used Kryla for. With higher breaks and AoE mirages.
His TMR is so and so, great for him as it perfectly fits and could also be used for an evade provoking MM Xon, but 50% TDW with 20% phys dodge is often inferior to 50% TDW + ATK% or Dual Form (100% TDW). His STMR is the perfect fit for the type of build SoF Vaan goes for. 163 ATK, 30% phys dodge and 30% auto-provoke, which means this is also the first weapon we have to get 30% auto provoke. In terms of Auto-Provoke, it'd ease up on the chest slot and another materia slot while obviously granting 30% evasion on top of that. Even as another 30% evasion weapon itself it's great as the 30% provoke will be ignored as long as another unit has 100%. So you can pair it up with Butterfly Knives or Locke's Dagger and boom. One of the few STMRs I might actually STMR moogle simply because it can be used on so many different builds and benefit from a lot. Heck, even Paladin Cecil could use this extremely well.
 

Build + Maths:

Seeker of Freedom Vaan Damage Build: https://ffbeEquip.com/builder.html?server=GL#8f3b13f0-cf48-11ea-8219-c768f320c4e6
Evade Provoker Build: https://ffbeEquip.com/builder.html?server=GL#d784a1d0-cf48-11ea-8219-c768f320c4e6

Seeker of Freedom Vaan Damage ATK post 250% buff: 3250 RH Assuming chain capping Rotation: Turn 1: Earthen Eruption + True Fire Achieles + Red Spiral Turn 2: True Fire Achilles + Red Spiral x2 Turn 3: Red Spiral x3 Turn 4: Red Spiral x3 Turn 5: True Fire Achilles + Red Spiral x2 Turn 1: [ 3250^2 x 40 + ( 3250^2 x ( 32 + 45 ) x 2.3 ) ] x 6 = 13758712500 Turn 2: 3250^2 x ( 32 + 45 x 2 ) x 6 x 2.3 = 17783025000 Turn 3: 3250^2 x 45 x 3 x 6 x 2.3 = 19677937500 Turn 4: 3250^2 x 45 x 3 x 6 x 2.3 = 19677937500 Turn 5: 3250^2 x ( 32 + 45 x 2 ) x 6 x 2.3 = 17783025000 Average Turn 1-5: 17,736,127,500 Highest Burst: 19,677,937,500 
 
Character Design: 9.5/10 Sprite: 8/10 Breaker: 9.5/10 Trust Master Reward: 7.5/10 STMR: 9.5/10 Arena: 7/10 Limit Burst: 9.5/10 Future Proof: 9/10 Dark Visions: 9.5/10 Free 2 Play: 9.5/10 Pay 2 Play: 9.5/10 Personal Rating: 9.5/10 Optimal Rating: 9.5/10
 
 

Dancer Penelo Dancing Heart Penelo:

Trust Master Reward : Desert Bloom (Materia) - Increase MAG (40%) Increase equipment MAG (50%) and accuracy (25%) when single wielding any weapon
STMR : Rabanastre Dancer's Clothing (Clothes) - 22 DEF, 21 SPR, 71 MAG, +40% MAG
 

Overview:

If you have one amazing unit on a banner, good chance you'll have a....
DH Penelo's base stats have the classy mage spread: Decent HP, mediocre DEF, high MP/MAG/SPR. Also what happened to her blue shining dagger? In offensive passives, not many mages can be as impressive as DH Penelo. I mean, with her own TMR she has an innate 200% MAG and 300% MTDH. Only with her TMR you already capped MTDH, which helps a lot, especially in gaining some bulk. Because the innate bulk is mediocre. 60% HP/DEF/SPR isn't bad and we've seen much worse but she'll need a helping hand. She does have a guts passive on top of it though, but due to her ease of use isn't a huge deal if she does die during the fight. She's resistant against confusion and charm, which leaves almost all status ailment widely open, but just like Vaan has a 100% beast / human killer, which are common enemy types.
Also I'm just assuming, so don't get offended when I do, I doubt any of you will use the 40% DEF/SPR + 10% HP passives from equipping shields. Hey... don't point at me like that.
DH Penelo can W-/T-Cast all of her abilities except for Lumiscence, which is the same as SoF Vaan's just that it scales with her MAG. It has all the physical mechanics going for it but the modifier of 2500% is too low in comparison and her innate killers also don't work. It's nice to have to bypass magic immunity if necessary, though would require a MTDW build to cast twice.
She does have a small set of supportive abilities but... they aren't super good. Well, some aren't. Her Mist Curaja and Mist Banish aren't that worth to use. The heal is too minor and a ST mirage has to be better than two stacks to be truly worthwhile. Mist Shellga can be good if you're still lacking magic mitigation and would need that 30% mit to survive, but in a good amount of team comps isn't needed. Mincing Minuet is a fantastic ST 70% fullbreak in emergency cases, but it's more likely for her to die first than the breaker. If you're a new player, this break will easily suffice for a long time.
And from here on we only have her damage dealing kit left. That was quick, eh?
All chains from here on are CWA chains and truth be told it's as simple as modern mages can get.
The structure is very very similar to SoF Vaan's mechanics.
You have a set of either Fire, Ice or Dark chains that have 3600%/3700% modifiers as well as their respective imperils and after using her CD ability, Channeling, which can be used right at the start and grants you an undispellable 250% MAG buff, upgrade.
These upgrades unlock themselves again, so once you get them you're basically settled. These upgrades have 4600% modifiers, or in dark's cases 4800%, imperil their respective element by 130% and imbue DH Penelo. The imbue isn't too important.
From here on you can either keep upgrading your Fire or Ice chains, while Fire is way superior.
Her fire chains have a matching CD ability, Ardor, which is available at Turn 1 with a 3 turn cooldown, imperil fire yet again and has a 6500% and then proceeds to buff Mist Firaja up by another 1000% for a total of 5600%. Which is nice.
The less ideal option would be Mist Blizzaja. You can get the modifier boost through her LB, which isn't a great LB, and the modifier boost would only be 600% instead of 1000%. It lasts for the rest of the battle though.
Mist Darkja has no modifier support what so ever but with T-Cast can chain nicely alongside Umbral Dragon Dark Fina, who has really high damage output.
 

How does she fare in the meta?

DH Penelo is... she's good.
Her damage is vastly inferior to UDD.Fina while also focusing on CWA chains and having less bulk, but also works nicely with her and proves to be the best partner for her in Dark Visions since all of Penelo's chains are ST, too. This does give her a good-ish niche in the meta, though every area that doesn't prefer dark element she'd lose out on Ace and Rem.
Her average damage is very similar to both BB Rem and WC Ace while lacking the bulk they have and lacking the great physical mechanics they utilise, thus limiting her quite a lot in DV due to only having three elements and having the common mage issues for finding proper chaining partners outside of the dark element. Especially since all other decent chainers with fire or ice element are AoE chaining instead of ST.
In trials she is decent though the damage difference between DH Penelo and UDD.Fina is massive. Yet again, you can use them simultaneously for dark damage in trials as long as it works.
In terms of pure damage she sets a good middleground but isn't ground breaking.
As long as you have a rod equipped, DH Penelo's TMR is a worse version of Top Operative, but they can stack with each other and can make for a good addition for MTDH builds. Besides, the MAG difference is minor and still makes a good TMR to get. Her STMR can be a really strong piece of clothing for mages with 71 MAG and 40% MAG, but you gotta keep in mind that it's Clothes, not robes. So some materias that depend on robes... you might want to equip different ones. It's a good STMR but I wouldn't moogle it.
 

Build + Maths:

Dancing Heart Penelo Damage Build: https://ffbeEquip.com/builder.html?server=GL#55626c50-cf48-11ea-8219-c768f320c4e6
Realistic Build: https://ffbeEquip.com/builder.html?server=GL#3a46c460-cf49-11ea-8219-c768f320c4e6

Dancing Heart Penelo Damage MAG post 250% buff: 3845 Assuming spark chains Rotation: Turn 1: Channeling + Ardor + Mist Firaja Turn 2: Mist Firaja x3 Turn 3: Mist Firaja x3 Turn 4: Mist Firaja x2 + Ardor Turn 5: Mist Firaja x3 Turn 1: [ 3845^2 x 65 x 3.6115 + 3845^2 x 56 x 4 ] x 2.3 = 15598909369 Turn 2: [ 3845^2 x 56 x 3.6115 + 3845^2 x 56 x 2 x 4 ] x 2.3 = 22110414169 Turn 3: [ 3845^2 x 56 x 3.6115 + 3845^2 x 56 x 2 x 4 ] x 2.3 = 22110414169 Turn 4: [ 3845^2 x 56 x 3.6115 + 3845^2 x ( 56 + 65 ) x 4 ] x 2.3 = 23334531439 Turn 5: [ 3845^2 x 56 x 3.6115 + 3845^2 x 56 x 2 x 4 ] x 2.3 = 22110414169 Average Turn 1-5: 21,052,936,663 -> 141% of Serah's damage ( 14,967,170,643 ) -> 128% of Four Winds Physalis' damage ( 16,424,984,030 ) -> 102% of Benelovent Beauty Rem's Damage ( 20,587,710,541 ) -> 99% of Wild Card Ace's damage ( 21,172,119,331 ) -> 65% of Umbral Dragon Dark Fina damage ( 32,323,930,256 ) 
 
Character Design: 6.5/10 Sprite: 8.5/10 Chainer: 8/10 Trust Master Reward: 9/10 STMR: 9/10 Arena: 1/10 Limit Burst: 6/10 Future Proof: 6/10 Dark Visions: 5.5/10 Free 2 Play: 9/10 Pay 2 Play: 7/10 Personal Rating: 7.5/10 Optimal Rating: 8/10
 
 

Conclusion

For those with Healing Avatar Lid or Rikku a passable banner for sure but if you dig into it and get a nice Seeker of Freedom Vaan AND got the auto provoke gear.... rejoice my friend. Vaan is a valuable unit even past the introduction of Neo Visions and has two amazing niches other breakers don't fulfill while still having huge breaks to offer and some additional mirage support. Unless you're settled with another high tier breaker such as Rikku or HA Lid, I'd definitely recommend trying your luck. DH Penelo is a good mage but that's all you can really say about her. If you haven't gotten any good mages so far and you got her while pulling for Vaan, she is definitely a lot stronger than other mages that will just suffice, but if you're already invested into mages I wouldn't recommend going for her as she doesn't add a whole lot to the roster of mages and is behind the powercreep curve by a slight amount. And trust me, that curve will ramp up.
 
Hope you had a great weekend and a good start into the week. And hopefully I'll pass all the exams! NOW OFF to hang out with my flatmates a bit and then sleeps. ​
 

Memel0rd out

submitted by Memel0rdFFBE to FFBraveExvius